The bar chart above is based on selected data from the table below the chart and shows the acceptance rates for US medical schools based on three different combinations of MCAT scores and GPA by ethnic/race group during the 2013-2016 period. As I explained in previous CD post that featured the table above (but not the new bar chart, which was just prepared with assistance from Olivier Ballou):

For the 2015-2016 academic year, the average GPA of all students applying to medical schools was 3.55 and the average MCAT score was 28.3 according to data from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC). The highlighted dark blue column in the middle of the table above displays the acceptance rates to US medical schools for applicants from four racial/ethnic groups for applicants with: a) GPAs that fall in the 3.40 to 3.59 range that includes the average GPA of 3.55 and b) MCAT scores in the range between 27 to 29 that includes the average MCAT score of 28.3. Acceptance rates for students with slightly higher and slightly lower than average GPAs and test scores are displayed in the other columns. In other words, the table above displays acceptance rates by race/ethnicity for students applying to US medical schools with average academic credentials, and just slightly above and slightly below average academic credentials.

• The middle set of bars in the top chart above show that for applicants to US medical schools between 2013-2016 with average GPAs (3.40 to 3.59) and average MCAT scores (27 to 29), black applicants were almost 4 times more likely to be accepted to US medical schools than Asians in that applicant pool (81.2% vs. 20.6%), and 2.8 times more likely than white applicants (81.2% vs. 29.0%). Likewise, Hispanic applicants to medical school during this period with average GPAs and MCAT scores were more than twice as likely as whites in that applicant pool to be admitted to medical school (59.5% vs. 29.0%), and nearly three times more likely than Asians (59.5% vs. 20.6%). Overall, black (81.2%) and Hispanic (59.5%) applicants with average GPAs and average MCAT scores were accepted to US medical schools between 2013 and 2016 at rates (81.2% and 59.5% respectively) much higher than the 30.6% average acceptance rate for all students (see bottom of highlighted dark blue column).
• For students applying to medical school with slightly below average GPAs of 3.20 to 3.39 and slightly below average MCAT scores of 24 to 26 (first data column in the table, shaded light blue), black applicants were more than 9 times more likely to be admitted to medical school than Asians (56.4% vs. 5.9%), and more than 7 times more likely than whites (56.4% vs. 8.0%) – see the group of four bars on the left side of the chart above. Compared to the average acceptance rate of 16.7% for all applicants with that combination of GPA and MCAT score, black and Hispanic applicants were much more likely to be accepted at rates of 56.4% and 30.5%, and white and Asian applicants were much less likely to be accepted to US medical schools at rates of only 5.9% and 8.0% respectively.
• We find the same pattern of acceptance rates by ethnic/racial groups for applicants with slightly above average academic credentials (see the group of four bars on the right side of the chart). For example, for applicants with MCAT scores of 30 to 32 (slightly above average) and GPAs between 3.40 to 3.59 (average) in the eighth data column (shaded light blue), the acceptance rates for blacks (86.9%) and Hispanics (75.9%) were much higher than the acceptance rate for whites (48.0%) and Asians (40.3%) with those same academic credentials.

Bottom Line: Medical school acceptance rates in recent years suggest that medical schools must have “affirmative discrimination” and “racial profiling” admission policies that favor black and Hispanic applicants over equally qualified Asian and white students. Even if factors other than GPA and MCAT scores (which are probably the two most important ones) are considered for admission to medical school, wouldn’t it still be very hard to conclude that admissions policies to medical schools are completely “race-neutral” and completely free of any “racial profiling” practices that favor blacks and Hispanics over equally qualified Asians and whites?

Here’s why the issue is important: In some states like California, Washington, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, New Hampshire, and Michigan, racial preferences in college admissions to public universities are currently prohibited by state law. For example, Proposal 2 in Michigan, which was passed into Michigan Constitutional law by a 58% margin of voters in 2006 (and upheld by the Supreme Court in 2014), states:

The University of Michigan, Michigan State University, Wayne State University, and any other public college or university, community college, or school district shall not discriminate against, or grant preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public education, or public contracting.

The AAMC doesn’t provide acceptance data by individual medical school, so we can’t conclude that any of the four medical schools at public universities in Michigan (University of Michigan, Michigan State, Wayne State and Oakland University) are practicing illegal “racial discrimination” or “racial preferences” in admissions, but it’s clear that Michigan state law, and the laws in several other states, expressly prohibit that practice. Based on national data, is there any conclusion other than the obvious one – that US medical schools are granting special preferences for admissions on the basis of race for certain preferred minority groups (blacks and Hispanics) over other equally qualified non-preferred minority groups (Asians) and whites? When a black applicant with average academic credentials is four times more likely to be admitted to a US medical school than an equally qualified Asian applicant, what other conclusion is there?

Note: Unfortunately, it might difficult to get these exact data on medical school admissions by race/ethnic group and GPA/MCAT score in the future for the following reasons:

1. The MCAT test was recently re-scaled from the tradition point range of 20-35 to a new scale that ranges from 475 to 525 points, and that change was in effect for the most recent AAMC report on Applicants and Matriculants Data for the 2016-2017 academic year. In the past, the AAMC would report the data on acceptance rates by GPA/MCAT scores and race/ethnic group over the most recent three-year period, so it might wait for several more years before it would have three years of data under the new MCAT test score range.

2. The AAMC this year also hasn’t yet reported acceptance rates for the 2016-2017 academic year based on various combinations of GPA/MCAT score by race/ethnic group like it has in the past. It’s possible there’s a delay in reporting these data, and it’s also possible the traditional “grid report” on GPA and MCAT scores by race/ethnic groups may no longer be reported as it was in past years?