logo
Navigation
Views: 2898 | Replies:0
独家:美国政治学计量模型多数预测希拉里获胜
By 华府网  
OP 11/03/2016

美国政治学刊物Political Science and Politics最新一期(十月期)发布”总统选举预测”领域顶尖学着系列文章,其中多数预测希拉里获胜。诸位学者都是“美国政治学”领域研究总统选举的一流专家,多年来凭借各自的数理模型研究并发表总统选举结果的预测。2012年总统选举中,他们多数预测奥巴马取胜。

 

2016选举预测如下:


希拉里获胜:(姓名,文章题目)

James E. Campbell, "The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections"
Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, "Forecasting the Presidential Vote with Leading Economic Indicators and the Polls"
Brad Lockerbie, "Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment"
Thomas M. Holbrook, "National Conditions, Trial-heat Polls, and the 2016 Election"
Bruno Jerôme, Véronique Jerôme-Speziari, "State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory"
Andreas Graefe, Randall J. Jones, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán, "The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election"
    
两者皆有可能:
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien, "The Political Economy Model: 2016 US Election Forecasts"


川普获胜(作者名,文章题目):
Helmut Norpot, "Primary Model Predicts Trump Victory";
Alan I. Abramowitz, "Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump?";
 

1 0
 Share with WeChat
Open your WeChat,Scan QR Code,and then click the share button in the top right corner of your screen.